Home sales will increase 15 percent to about 5.7 million units and REALTOR® income will be up 20 percent in 2010, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun told a packed room of REALTORS® today in a residential economic update at the 2009 NAR Conference & Expo.

Yun credited the home buyer tax credit with unleashing sales on the lower-end of the housing market this year, bringing up to 400,000 first-time buyers into the market who wouldn’t have bought otherwise. That influx tightened inventories of starter homes, shored up prices, and helped reduce households’ fear over continuing price drops.

This virtuous cycle will continue now that the federal government has extended the credit to mid-2010 and expanded it to make a smaller credit available to repeat buyers and to households with higher incomes. “The key is stabilizing prices and preserving household wealth,” he says.

Yun predicts the supply of homes to stabilize at the historic norm of six to seven months. Homes above $500,000 will remain elevated in the near-term, but that weakness will be offset by a hefty drop in starter-home inventories, which are running at about a five months supply.

The tightening inventory at all price points will help improve market performance by bringing supply into better balance with demand, but the added sales, particularly on the higher end, will also increase the number and quality of the market comparables used by appraisers to assign valuations. Once appraisals improve, foreclosures will ease, blunting their drag on the market and making it less likely that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and even FHA will need help from the taxpayer.

“Then we’ll be set for a durable economic expansion,” he said.

New-home sales, which comprise about 10 percent of the market, will continue at suppressed levels–about 550,000 units, down from more than a million during the boom–mainly because builders have scaled projects way back, in part because financing isn’t available.

“Weakness in new-home sales shouldn’t be viewed as tepid demand,” he said.

Even under the most positive economic scenario, unemployment will remain elevated through 2010. Yun is predicting unemployment to stay near double-digits going into 2011, qualifying this recession, as some economists have, as the “Great Recession.”

For the longer term, the huge deficit run up by the federal government to shore up the economy remains the big question mark. Although the deficit is expected to improve each of the next three years, it will remain at historic highs. Unless the federal government releases a credible plan for shrinking it, investors will start to balk and interest rates will need to rise to bring them back. Should inflation be the result, the housing recovery will be set back.

Source: Robert Freedman, REALTOR® magazine

The House  and the Senate  passed legislation to extend the $8,000 home buyer tax credit to May 1, 2010, for first-time buyers and add a $6,500 tax credit for repeat buyers if they’ve lived in their home for five of the past eight years. Home prices are capped at $800,000. The legislation in both houses was included in a bill to extend unemployment benefits and was signed by President Obama on Friday. “REALTORS® appreciate the swift action by Congress to extend the home buyer tax credit and expand it to some current homeowners,” says NAR President Charles McMillan. “As the leading advocate of housing and real estate issues, we urged President Obama to sign this legislation into law quickly to keep the momentum going in this fragile recovery of the nation’s housing market.” Under the bill, income limits are expanded to $125,000 for individuals and $225,000 for joint filers. Individuals with incomes up to $145,000 and joint filers with incomes up to $245,000 qualify for reduced credits. Households who have binding contracts in place by April 30 will be allowed an additional 60 days to complete their transaction. The deadline for members of the military serving out the U.S. for at least 90 days between Jan. 1, 2009, and May 1, 2010, has been extended one year. Taxpayers can claim the credit on their federal income tax returns. If the credit exceeds their tax bill, the government will issue a check. Taxpayers will be able to claim the credit on their 2009 income tax return for purchases made in 2010.

Source: The Associated Press (11/5/2009)

For more details, go to: http://www.realtor.org/home_buyers_and_sellers/2009_first_time_home_buyer_tax_credit 

When Congress passed an $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers last winter, it was intended as a dose of shock therapy during a crisis. Now the question is becoming whether the housing market can function without it.

As many as 40 percent of all home buyers this year will qualify for the credit. It is on track to cost the government $15 billion, more than twice the amount that was projected when Congress passed the stimulus bill in February.

In the view of the real estate industry and some economists, all that money is well spent. They contend the credit is doing what it was meant to do, encouraging a recovery in the housing market that is gathering steam. Analysts say the credit is directly responsible for several hundred thousand home sales.

Skeptics argue that most of the money is going to people who would have bought a home anyway. And they contend that unless it is allowed to expire on schedule in late November, the tax credit is likely to become one more expensive government program that refuses to die.

The real estate industry, including the powerful 1.1 million-member National Association of REALTORS®, wants Congress to extend the credit at least through next summer. The group hopes to expand the program to $15,000 and to allow all buyers, not just those who have been out of the market for at least three years, to qualify. The price tag on that plan: $50 billion to $100 billion.

Source:  New York Times

By Erica Christoffer, Contributing Editor, REALTOR®Magazine Trey Rogers: The Yard Doctor

There is no better time than fall to get yards looking great, according to the “Yard Doctor” Trey Rogers, a professor of turfgrass management in the crop and soil sciences department at Michigan State University. Here are 6 tips from Rogers to help you and your clients take advantage of the seasonal weather and vibrant colors to add dramatic curb appeal.

1. For home owners in the northern portion of the United States, fall is the single best time to fertilize a yard. During the first 10 days of September, lay a complete nitrogen and potassium combination fertilizer.

2. Fall is also the best time to reseed grass. If you have bare spots from the summer, put down a seed mix that matches the yard during the first 15 days of September. Yards with crabgrass will notice the patches turn purple with the first frost. It is important to thoroughly seed and water those areas. “It’s a good time because the ground is still warm, but the days are getting shorter so you don’t have as much day length to rob the moisture out of the soil,” Rogers says.

3. During the first 10 days of October, take care of those pesky weeds and dandelions. Spray a liquid broadleaf herbicide over the yard. Weeds germinate in the fall, so by treating the problem in October, there will be fewer dandelions in the spring.

4. Mow, mow, mow. If you really want a yard to look smashing, dedicate yourself to mowing twice a week with the blade set at 2 ½ to 3 inches through mid-October. “They’ll be surprised when they see how much that makes the grass grow,” says Rogers. Don’t forget to keep watering, too.

5. It’s important to get those leaves off the ground as to not suffocate the lawn. But a better option would be to grind up the leaves and mulch them back into the yard. Most lawnmowers have blades designed for mulching. This provides natural nutrients and can be an organic weed controller — particularly maple leaves, which are a natural herbicide toward dandelions, Rogers says.

6. Play with the fall colors. Display potted mums. Think red. Dogwood bushes are cold-weather hardy and have red or yellow branches. Holly is another great way to decorate the outside of a home, where the bright red berries on the branches can standout.

John (Trey) Rogers, Ph.D., is regarded as one of the country’s leading experts on growing and maintaining healthy lawns. He has been a professor of turfgrass science at Michigan State University for 22 years. He is also a consultant to Briggs & Stratton, a manufacturer of engines for outdoor power equipment, where he has become known as the Yard Doctor. Visit his Web site: http://www.yardsmarts.com

More people are becoming landlords in an economy where selling a home can be challenging.

The nation’s second-largest home insurer, Allstate Corp., says the number of homeowners converting their homeowners insurance to landlord policies rose 27 percent in the first quarter of 2009.

Jim Bass of Jim Bass Real Estate Group in Frederick, Md., says he has begun offering property-management services for absent owners, many of whom are convinced it will be easier to sell in a couple of years.

Holding on probably isn’t the best answer, says economist Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. Leamer suggests negotiating a short sale instead. “Better to take your losses and move on.”

Another factor to consider is whether renting will reduce or eliminate the value of the capital-gains tax exclusion. Federal tax law requires living in the home at least two of the previous five years to qualify for the full capital-gains tax exclusion when the house is sold. Of course, if there is no profit to be had, then this isn’t a problem.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, M.P. McQueen (09/02/2009)